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Editor: cranell | Diterbitkan pada: 5 April 2013| Kategori: PILIHAN RAYA 2013 | 3 Comments »

Survey shows Pakatan may lose Kedah with 6pc swing in Malay, Chinese votes

KUALA LUMPUR, April 4 — Pakatan Rakyat (PR) could lose Kedah in Election 2013 with a mere six per cent swing in votes from the Malay and Chinese communities, a private survey by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research has found.

A Kedah PAS leader told The Malaysian Insider that a possible reason for the drop in Chinese support was Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azizan Razak’s ailing health, which he said had added to the perception of instability in the state government.

The leader also noted that Malay support for opposition parties PAS, PKR and the DAP during the 2008 general election had not been very strong to begin with, owing to the parties’ slim victory in the country’s rice-bowl state during the tumultuous polls.

“For example, in the Tanjung Dawai state seat, we won by barely a hundred votes,” the PAS leader said on condition of anonymity.

He added that the trend of votes from the Chinese community in supporting Barisan Nasional (BN) candidates at state-level but backing PR at federal level appeared to suggest a serious lack of confidence in the Kedah PR leadership.

Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian underlined three likely factors behind the loss of support for the Kedah PR government, including the RM500 cash handouts under the Najib administration’s Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia (BR1M) programme.

“Secondly, there may be internal issues within the state government, such as its service delivery and thirdly, the new crop of candidates that Datuk Seri Najib Razak has proposed have begun to draw voters back into BN’s fold,” he said when contacted by The Malaysian Insider.

The prime minister dissolved Parliament yesterday and several states followed suit while the Kedah MB said he would seek the state Ruler’s consent today. Elections are expected by the end of April.

Azizan has expressed confidence in PR’s chances in Kedah despite the reported in-fighting among state PAS leaders that could topple the fledgling pact in the state.But PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu dismissed the independent pollster’s findings, saying it would not hamper the Islamist party’s efforts to keep Kedah in Election 2013.

“I will go all out to help PAS and Pakatan recapture Kedah. Yes, I am aware of Merdeka Center’s findings,” he said when contacted by The Malaysian Insider.

“We promise to improve on our weaknesses to ensure that we will get to rule for a second term,” said the PAS leader, who is expected to contest in Kedah’s Pendang parliamentary seat.

In a recent interview with The Malaysian Insider, Azizan expressed confidence in PR’s chances in Kedah despite a recent prediction that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s influence and in-fighting among state PAS leaders could topple the fledgling pact in the state.

Azizan said voters should continue to support PR in Kedah because of several measures undertaken by his administration, including eliminating corruption and providing insurance coverage to all senior citizens, regardless of race.

“There is no corruption in Kedah. If there is, just arrest them,” said Azizan.

“I give aid to the rakyat without looking at their race. I use the Kifaalah system… all dead people, Malays, Chinese Indians, all get it,” added the Sungai Limau assemblyman, referring to an insurance scheme for all senior citizens in Kedah that was first introduced by the Kelantan PAS government.

“I give education, education assistance… I also introduced the Kedah agricultural agenda,” said Azizan.

PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang said recently that Azizan will continue to lead Kedah PAS as its state commissioner in facing Election 2013 that must be held by late June.

In Election 2008, the loose coalition of PAS, PKR and the DAP soared to a surprise victory in Kedah when it trounced BN, sweeping 22 of the state’s 36-seat assembly.

But two PKR representatives — Bakar Arang’s Tan Wei Shu and Lunas’ Mohd Radzhi Salleh — subsequently quit to become BN-friendly independents, citing their growing disillusionment with their party leadership.

Their quit decision effectively narrowed the seat margin between BN and PR to a mere four.

In May 2010, rumours began circulating that the state’s PR-led government would lose its already tenuous control of the state assembly and even fall back into BN’s hands due to more defections from PKR assemblymen.

But in a mammoth ceramah on the night of May 22, all remaining 20 PR state assemblymen turned up to defy the rumours, declaring their allegiance to Azizan’s leadership.

The PAS leadership has yet to officially indicate who will lead the party’s campaign in Kedah for Election 2013.

Politicians from the ruling BN and opposition PR will be fighting tooth and nail to wrest majority control over 222 parliamentary seats and 505 state seats in the coming polls, which analysts have said will a toss-up between both pacts.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/survey-shows-pakatan-may-lose-kedah-with-6pc-swing-in-malay-chinese-votes/

Ada 3 Comments setakat ini.

  • Anak Lenggong
    April 5th, 2013 at 12:23 PM

    Bakal wakil rakyat yang akan dikorbankan:-

    1. Calon PAS Adun Selising, Saipul Bahrin Mohamad
    Faktor kekalahan : Isu Moral. Bukan pilihan akar umbi.

    2. Calon DAP Parlimen Raub, Datuk Mohd Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz
    Faktor kekalahan : Akar umbi tidak mengenali, baru masuk DAP terus menjadi calon. Kawasan asal beliau ialah ADUN Pulau Manis. Bekas Ketua Penerangan UMNO Pekan yang terbuang. Ideologi perjuangan beliau dalam DAP dipertikai banyak pihak. Tiada kekuatan jentera penggerak.

    3. Calon PKR Parlimen Bagan Serai, Dr. Mohd Nor Manuty
    Faktor kekalahan : Tiada sokongan akar umbi. Bekas ahli Parlimen di kawasan tersebut Mohsin Fadzli Samsuri telah bertindak keluar PKR dan menjadi ahli Parlimen bebas. PKR kawasan Bagan Serai lumpuh tiada jentera sokongan.

    4. Calon PKR Parlimen Sabak Bernam, Dr. Abdul Aziz Bari
    Faktor kekalahan : Tiada sokongan akar umbi, tiada pengalaman sebagai wakil rakyat dan ahli politik. Baru menyertai PKR terus menjadi calon. Tiada kekuatan jentera penggerak.

    5.Calon PAS Parlimen Temerloh, Nasruddin Hassan at-Tantawi
    Faktor kekalahan : Difahamkan tiada sokongan daripada akar umbi dan jentera PKR di kawasan tersebut. Temerloh merupakan kawasan PKR, PRU yang lalu calon ahli parlimennya adalah daripada PKR.

    6. Calon PKR Parlimen Johor Bahru, Bekas Panglima Tentera Darat, Jeneral (B) Tan Sri Md. Hashim Hussein
    Faktor kekalahan : JB merupakan kubu kuat UMNO dan Jeneralnya ialah Dato’ Shahrir Abdul Samad. Tan Sri Hashim tiada jentera kuat akar umbi di sana. Kurang dikenali dan tiada pengalaman politik. Peperangan di medan politik jauh lebih sukar daripada peperangan di dalam hutan.

    7.Calon PAS Parlimen Baling, Brig-Jen (B) Datuk Najmi Ahmad
    Faktor kekalahan : Sejarah Parlimen Baling adalah saling bertukar tangan antara PAS dengan UMNO. Ia bukan kubu kuat mana-mana parti politik. Ia kawasan sentimen. 1999 -PAS, 2004-UMNO dan 2008-PAS. Mengikut keadaan sekarang, jika UMNO meletakkan calon yang tepat dan diikuti gelombang perubahan politik di Kedah, Datuk Najmi InshaAllah tewas.

    8. Calon DAP Parlimen Gelang Patah, Lim Kit Siang
    Faktor kekalahan : Dikenali sebagai wakil rakyat yang tiada kawasan sendiri. Sepanjang menjadi ahli parlimen, beliau sering bertukar-tukar kawasan. Dari Bandar Melaka ke Kota Melaka, kemudian ke Petaling Jaya, kembali semula ke Kota Melaka, kemudian ke Tanjong dan Ipoh Timur. Kini mencuba nasib di Gelang Patah, kubu kuat BN. Rakyat Johor menolak beliau.

    9.Calon PAS Parlimen Pulai, Salahuddin Ayub
    Faktor kekalahan : Parlimen Pulai merupakan kubu kuat UMNO dipimpin oleh Datuk Nur Jazlan Tan Sri Mohamed. Salahuddin tidak mempunyai kekuatan akar umbi di kawasan tersebut.

    10.Calon PKR Parlimen Indera Mahkota, Fauzi Abdul Rahman
    Faktor kekalahan : Parlimen ini merupakan milik Azan Ismail (PKR) yang menang tipis iaitu 1027 mengalahkan calon UMNO dalam PRU ke-12 yang lalu. Difahamkan akar umbi PKR masih mahukan Azan Ismail sebagai calon dan kurang menyenangi Fauzi. Fauzi juga dikatakan tidak mempunyai kekuatan jentera di kawasan ini.

    Yang kesiannya mamat ni, belum apa2 telah dkorbankan oleh nuar brahi setelah habis susu diperah iaitu MP Balik Pulau Yusmadi…kesiannya..tu laa ko ni pandai tapi tak tau nak bandingkan yang mana permata dan yangmana batu..dah ramai rakan lama nuar sedar mereka dipergunakan untuk kepentingan diri dia..dan mula mengundur diri…ko pulak fikir2 kan laa

  • lady j
    April 5th, 2013 at 1:38 PM

    jgn lupa yg awal2 lagi chua jui meng dan azizah sendiri dah dikirbankan awal2 oleh anwar sendiri, “tewas” tanpa bertanding.

  • PASpartyNGOK
    April 7th, 2013 at 11:06 PM

    Not only Azizan needs to be retired but the whole Kedah has to retire. Retire from being governed by a weak leadership that gives no promises for the well being of rakyat.

    BN has to win and BN will win capturing Kedah back to awake them from a 5 year nap.

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